from Calculated Risk by CalculatedRisk
The Case Shiller house price indexes for November will be released next Tuesday. Here are a couple of forecasts:
• Zillow Forecast: November Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.2% Decline from One Year Ago
Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.7 percent. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from October to November will be -0.2 percent and -0.1 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.
• From RadarLogic: Home Prices Declined at an Accelerating Rate in November as Sales Increased
The S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for November 2011 will decline again on a month-over-month basis.
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This month, we expect the November 2011 10-City composite index to be about 152 and the 20-City index to be roughly 138.
Below is a summary table. Case-Shiller will probably report house prices are at a new post-bubble low seasonally adjusted, but still above the NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted) levels of March 2011.
| Case Shiller Composite 10 | Case Shiller Composite 20 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSA | SA | NSA | SA | ||
| Case Shiller (actual) | Nov-10 | 157.5 | 156.44 | 143.77 | 142.77 |
| Oct-11 | 154.1 | 152.24 | 140.3 | 138.56 | |
| Zillow Forecast | YoY | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.2% | -3.2% |
| MoM | -0.6% | -0.1% | -0.8% | -0.2% | |
| Zillow Forecasts1 | 153.2 | 152.2 | 139.2 | 138.2 | |
| RadarLogic Forecast | 152 | 138 | |||
| Post Bubble Lows2 | 150.44 | 152.24 | 137.64 | 138.56 | |
| 1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts2NSA lows were in March 2011, SA lows were last month. | |||||
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